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Brazil's economy to expand 7.13% in 2010: survey
RIO DE JANEIRO, June 28 (Xinhua) -- Brazil's economy will expand 7.13 percent in 2010, up from the previous projection of 7.06 percent, according to a new survey released on Monday by the Central Bank.
It was the 15th consecutive rise in the gross domestic production (GDP) projection, said the Focus market survey that was carried out among the country's financial institutions. The previous survey said Brazilian economists predicted an expansion of 7.06 percent.
But the estimate for next year's GDP growth remains at 4.5 percent.
Last year, Brazil's economy contracted 0.2 percent due to the international financial crisis. In the first quarter of 2010, Brazil's GDP expanded 2.7 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2009 and 9 percent from the same period last year.
Industrial production is expected to grow 11.94 percent this year and 5 percent in 2011. Last year, Brazil's industrial production fell 7.4 percent due to the global financial crisis. In the first four months of 2010, industrial production increased by 18 percent.
Forecasts for inflation in 2010 and 2011 stand at 5.55 percent and 4.8 percent respectively. The figures are above the inflation target of 4.5 percent set by the Brazilian government for the two years, with a tolerance of two percentage points.
In the first five months of 2010, Brazil's inflation rate was 3.09 percent. Last year, the inflation rate totaled 4.31 percent.
The annual basic interest rate, Selic, is expected to reach 12 percent by the end of this year and fall to 11.75 percent by the end of 2011. The Selic rate, which was at 8.75 percent in 2009, has been lifted to 10.25 percent.
The projections for the Brazilian real-U.S. dollar exchange rate are of 1.80 reais a dollar by the end of 2010 and 1.90 reais a dollar in 2011. Since the beginning of the year, the U.S. dollar has appreciated 2.29 percent against the real. The exchange rate closed at 1.78 reais a dollar on Monday.
The trade surplus is expected to reach 15.36 billion U.S. dollars this year and 7 billion dollars in 2011, down from last year's 24.615 billion dollars. In the first five months of 2010, the trade surplus reached 5.617 billion dollars.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) is expected to total 35 billion dollars in 2010 and 40 billion dollars in 2011. Last year, FDI totaled 25.9 billion dollars, and in the first five months of 2010, FDI reached 11.4 billion dollars.
Source: china.cn